Characteristic |
Beta |
95% CI 1 |
|---|---|---|
| modern | ||
| FALSE | — | — |
| TRUE | -0.24 | -0.38, -0.09 |
| great | ||
| 0 | — | — |
| 1 | -0.36 | -0.49, -0.23 |
| 2 | -0.56 | -0.75, -0.36 |
| nuclear | ||
| 0 | — | — |
| 1 | -0.54 | -0.70, -0.38 |
| 2 | -0.61 | -0.89, -0.33 |
| 1
CI = Credible Interval |
||
Model
\[y_{i} = \beta_{0} + \beta_{1} modern + \beta_{2}great + \beta_{3}nuclear\]
We are using a linear model with error terms on the dependent variable of whether armed hostility occurs in a given conflict. Our model predicts negative relationships between nuclear possession, great power status, and modernity with chance of severe escalation.